Wednesday, 8 October 2014

Trophy Predictions

My thoughts on potential trophy winners before the season.  I choose a winner, two guys who I also think have a good shot (labelled as runner ups) or who could be runner ups, and one "Dark Horse" candidate.

Hart trophy
Most likely- Crosby
Runner ups- Kopitar, Doughty
Dark Horse- Corey Schneider

Most Likely-Doughty
Runner ups-Keith, Pietrangelo
Dark Horse- Brodin (kidding he won't get the credit he deserves. Hedman)

Most Likely- Rask
Runner ups- Lundqvist, Rinne
Dark Horse- Lehtonen

Most Likely-Datsyuk
Runner ups-Bergeron, Kopitar
Dark Horse- Couturier

Art Ross
Most LIkely-Crosby
Runner ups-Stamkos, Malkin
Dark Horse-Taylor Hall (is this a dark horse?  Not really, but people still act like he isn't that good, for some odd, odd reason).


Tuesday, 7 October 2014

10 Random Predictions 2014-2015

1) Jonathan Quick is a good goalie, but an overrated one.  He will not be in the top 10 goaltenders by save percentage (for goaltenders with greater than 35 GP).

2) Thornton will be within the top 30 in points (but remember San Jose's failure to succeed in the playoffs is all his fault).

3) Halak will have a better save percentage than Miller

4) Kadri will have more points than Bozak (but people will probably still think Bozak is better).

5) Olli Jokinen will have more points than Schiefelle

6) Letang will be top 5 in defensive scoring (points)

7) Kessel will have more points and/or goals than P. Kane (but people will not consider Kessel at the same level as him)

8) Neither Sedin cracks 65 points.

9) Shattenkirk will have more points than Pietrangelo

10) JVR will out score Lucic in goals and points.

I don't have time to review last years right now, but I will do so later.


2014-2015 Predictions

Atlantic Division

  1. Boston Bruins
  2. Tamp Bay Lightning
  3. Montreal Canadiens
  4. Toronto Maple Leafs
  5. Detroit Red Wings
  6. Ottawa Senators
  7. Florida Panthers
  8. Buffalo Sabres
Toronto making it is probably Homerism, but Datsyuk is old, Senators C depth is poor and Florida and Buffalo are pretty poor

Metropolitan Division

  1. Pittsburgh Penguins
  2. New York Islanders*
  3. New York Rangers*
  4. Washington Capitals
  5. Columbus Blue Jackets
  6. New Jersey Devils
  7. Philadelphia Flyers
  8. Carolina Hurricaines
*I would have said Rangers over Islanders, but Stepan is out.
Columbus played well last year and Johansen is an emerging superstar.  That being said I find there depth poor at both forward and D.

Central Division

  1. Chicago Blackhawks
  2. St. Louis Blues
  3. Dallas Stars
  4. Minnesota Wild
  5. Colorado Avalanche
  6. --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
  7. Nashville Predators
  8. Winnipeg Jets

Pacific Division

  1. LA Kings
  2. San Jose Sharks
  3. Anaheim Ducks
  4. --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
  5. Vancouver Canucks
  6. Phoenix Coyotes
  7. Edmonton Oilers
  8. Calgary Flames
5 from the Central, 3 from the Pacific.

Monday, 30 September 2013

2013-2014 Regular Season Predictions

My regular season predictions:

Atlantic Division

  1. Boston Bruins
  2. Ottawa Senators
  3. Detroit Red Wings
  4. Toronto Maple Leafs*
  5. Montreal Canadiens*
  6. Tampa Bay Lightning
  7. Florida Panthers
  8. Buffalo Sabres

*I actually kind of think the Habs will be better than the Leafs, but it is close enough that my homerism has me picking the Leafs over the Habs

Metropolitan Division

  1. Pittsburgh Penguins
  2. Washington Capitals
  3. New York Rangers
  4. New York Islanders
  5. Philadelphia Flyers
  6. New Jersey Devils
  7. Carolina Hurricaines
  8. Columbus Blue Jackets

Central Division

  1. Chicago Blackhawks
  2. St. Louis Blues
  3. Minnesota Wild
  4. Dallas Stars
  5. Colorado Avalanche
  6. Nashville Predators
  7. Winnipeg Jets

Pacific Division

  1. LA Kings
  2. San Jose Sharks
  3. Vancouver Canucks
  4. Edmonton Oilers
  5. Anaheim Ducks
  6. Phoenix Coyotes
  7. Calgary Flames
One day left.  Lets drop the puck.

Wednesday, 11 September 2013

BCapp's Recap of 2013 Predictions

Two years ago I got 3/10 for predictions.  Ouch.  Lets see how I did last season:

  • Eberle will not be top 10 scoring, but he will be top 30 (ie 11-30th)
  • Eberle was 41st.  Couldn't even make the top 30.  Should have just predicted him falling back to earth. WRONG
  • Ovechkin will outscore both Sedins
  • Ovechkin 56 points, D Sedin 40, H Sedin 45. RIGHT
  • Vokoun will be within 0.003 of Fleury in save percentage
  • Vokoun had a 0.919 to Fleury's 0.916.  Not only were these within the predicted range, but Vokoun's was better. RIGHT
  • Nash will score less goals and/or points than Kessel (at least 1 of the two)
  • Kessel's 52 points were way more than Nash's 42 points.  However his 20 goals were one less than Nash's 21.  Fortunately I said he would be better in at least 1. RIGHT
  • Edmonton will not break the top 10 in the West
  • Edmonton was 12th.  Guess it wasn't their year. RIGHT
  • Calgary will be the worst Canadian team by points
  • Mtl 63, Van 59, Tor 57, Ott 56, Wpg 51, Edm 45, Clg 42.  Hehe and Calgary only got worse. RIGHT
  • Duchenne will outscore Landeskog (by points)
  • Duchene's (excuse the typo from last year) 43 points were way more than Landeskog's 17.  However Landeskog got injured you may say.  Duchene's 0.91 PPG was also way better than Landeskog's 0.47 PPG.  I like Landeskog a fair bit, but the stud of the two is Duchene. RIGHT
  • John Tavares will outscore Seguin in points and goals
  • Tavares 28 G and 47 points were both higher than Seguin's 16 G and 32 points.  RIGHT
  • One of Toronto's goalies will have a better save percentage than Pavelec
  • Pavelec continued his career of mediocre at best hockey putting up a 0.905.  Both Leafs goaltenders were better with 0.924 and 0.915.  Have fun with him Winnipeg. RIGHT
  • Smith will not be top 12 in save percentage for goalies playing greater to or equal 25 GP
  • Smith was 18th with a 0.910.  RIGHT

  • So this past season I did great going 9/10 and my only incorrect prediction was by not going bold enough. 

    Lets make 'em up for this year

    1. Grabovski will outscore Bozak in at least one of points or goals (likely both).  To protect this stat from injury screwing it up if one or both player plays less than 70 GP we'll look at GPG and PPG
    2. Both Bernier and Reimer will put up at least okay numbers with save percentages above 0.912
    3. Couturier will outscore Schenn in points and/or goals (at least one).
    4. Gaborik will outscore Nash in points and/or goals (at least one).
    5. Jets fans will continue to like Pavelec even though he is mediocre at best.  But for a real prediction, he will be outside the top 20 in save percentage for goalies in the top 40 by GP
    6. Dubnyk will be in the top 20 in save percentage for goalies in the top 40 by GP, but people will be blaming him for any of Edmonton's woes.
    7. The Jets will not make the playoffs.
    8. Enroth (similar to Dubnyk) will quietly put up at least a league average save percentage (0,912), but everyone will be convinced Buffalo is screwed if/when Miller is moved.
    9. Semin will outscore Perry by points and/or goals (at least one).
    10. Both Duchene and Ryan O'Reilly will outscore Landeskog in points this year.
    Note for #'s 6 and 8 the prediction is just the save percentage...

    Drop the puck!

    Saturday, 19 January 2013

    Predictions 2013. Around the league

    Nazem Kadri from SBNation database of pictures

    1. Nazem Kadri will score at a higher points per game than Brayden Schenn.
    2. Bobrovski will be within 0.005 of Bryzgalov in save percentage.
    3. Daniel Alfredsson will not crack 55 points.
    4. The Flyers will have less points than they did last year.
    5. Marc Andre Fleury will have a lower than the median save percentage for a starter (as defined by goalies who play more than 30 GP).
    6. Varlamov will be top 15 in save percentage.
    7. Cole will play less games than Connolly.
    8. Ovechkin will crack 100 points again and win the Hart.
    9. Iginla will not crack 35 goals nor 75 points.
    10. Tampa Bay will pick up 2 players making 3 million+ during the season.
     Lets see how I did:

    1. NK= 0.33 vs BS = 0.33... They Tied.  Wrong
    2. Bryz=0.909, Bob=0.899... Wrong (though Bryz did worse than everyone predicted)
    3. Alfredsson= 59 points... Wrong
    4. 2010/2011= 106 pts vs 2011/2012= 103 pts.  Right
    5. Median save percentage for goalie with >30 GP = 0.915, Fleury's = 0.913. Right
    6. (Same list as last) Varlamov was 26th... Wrong
    7. Connolly= 70 GP vs Cole = 82 GP... Wrong
    8. Ovechkin=65 points... Wrong
    9. Iginla= 32 goals and 67 points... Right
    10. This one simply didn't happen.... Wrong
    3/10.... Terrible.

    Read on to see if I can do any better this year....

    Sunday, 6 January 2013

    NHL's back! 2013 Predicted Regular Season Standings (too bad I can't write 2012/2013)

    From @DregerFace.  Dreger Face is one of the few good things to come
    out of this lockout.... If this doesn't show how boring the lockout was I don't
    know what will.  BRING ON THE HOCKEY

    The season is back and I am excited so I thought I would write a quick predictions post.  I LA to be in the SCF last year, but otherwise I wasn't awesome... Anyway here we go! (Last year's: Western Conference

    (Note this is based on rosters as they are right now (as they were over the lockout), with no trades and the assumption that most (if not all) unsigned RFA's are signed).